Dear Readers,
We are half way done with 2023. At the end of 2022, there was a lot of anticipation around a possible recession in 2023. Well, that has not happened (as yet). In fact the broader market is up nearly 12% YTD. But it has not been a smooth ride (seems like it never is). In the midst of all that, we have had some serious questions about the banking sector in the country. We have had mass hysteria around the debt ceiling negotiations, which ultimately fizzled out (some would say as expected).
So what will the remaining 6 months have in store for us? Will see the much anticipated recession finally happen? Will inflation come back under control? Will the Fed ultimately lower interest rates? Your guess is as good as mine! I did notice earlier this week that the eurozone went into a technical recession. So we never know when the ramifications of events from across the pond are going to impact us here.
In any case, I wanted to take a step back and review my portfolio performance, its holdings and my overall goals etc. With half of the year in the books, this seemed like a good juncture to do such a review.
Portfolio Holdings
As we head into potentially rocky times ahead, I wanted to redirect the focus of my portfolio towards my highest conviction stocks, and at the same time, deeply introspect on the role of each holding. This includes cutting down on the losers if there has been a fundamental change in my initial thesis versus the ground reality of the business.
For this reason, I have exited out of the following businesses:
- Church & Dwight (ticker: CHD)
- Digital Realty Trust (ticker: DLR)
- Intel (ticker: INTC)
I have a separate posts elaborating why I exited out of both CHD and DLR. So I will not repeat those arguments here.
I recently exited out INTC after holding the stock for over an year. This was a difficult decision but one that I thought made a lot of long-term sense. INTC stock has been butchered in the last one year. During this time, they have had some horrendous earnings releases, they have cut their dividend by a whopping ~66% and they have also gone through some dire steps such as cut the pay of their C-suite and eliminate bonuses/401(k) match for their employees etc.
I knew heading into position that this was not going to be a smooth ride. But as an investor, there were a few things that irked me about CEO Pat Gelsinger, his team and the Intel board that caused me to re-consider my stance:
- Financial Engineering: If you look through the earnings transcript for Q4 2022, you would notice the CFO making a statement about increasing the life of the production machinery and equipment from five to eight years, which thereby amounts to a reduction of depreciation expense by ~$4 billion. This is an accounting joke and when management starts to indulge in nonsense of this sort, this makes my job as an investor that much harder.
- Board using the stock-price growth as a metric for gauging performance of the CEO: This caught my eye during the perusal of the Def14a proxy filing. In my opinion, using stock-price as a sole metric to gauge performance sets a bad precedent for the exec. This would serve as an incentive to artificially bump up the stock price through all kinds of financial engineering, something which is not favorable to the objectives of a long-term investor like myself. I would instead prefer focusing on other profitability metrics like cash flows, ROIC etc.
- While I have nothing against anyone expressing their faith in private, Pat has made a routine of quoting verses from the bible on Twitter. I know these are tough times, and I respect that everyone is using all means available to them to keep their spirits up. But to keep doing this on a public forum like Twitter? I dunno. I would much rather prefer the CEOs of businesses that I am invested in to be laser-focused (a term Pat uses regularly in his earnings calls) on their job and speak only when necessary.
I think this turn around story will atleast take a couple of years to play its course out. And for the most part, I think Pat may still be the right person to turn around this ship and get it back into the path of growth again. And while I have no doubts about Pat the engineer, I have so far not been as impressed with Pat the CEO and his exec team. More importantly, I do not need to stay invested during the entire duration of this turn-around story. The opportunity cost of holding my capital in this business and not investing it in other winners cannot be ignored. And from my standpoint, the rewards are certainly not worth the risk I am undertaking with this investment.
There are other stocks that are on the radar as far as “summer clean-up” exercise. I will reserve thoughts on them in my future posts.
Top Holdings – By Percentage
The top five holdings in my portfolio are:
- Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) : 11.88%
- Texas Instruments (ticker: TXN) : 8.54%
- Johnson & Johnson (ticker: JNJ) : 6.48%
- T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (ticker: TROW) : 6.07%
- Visa Inc (ticker: V): 5.65%
These top 5 holdings together amount for a total of 38.62%. While this is considerably higher than my desirable top-5 total percentage, I am at the accumulation stage of my dividend growth investing journey, so I am not too overly concerned about this. What I am pretty happy with is that my current top-5 is composed of very high-quality businesses with pristine balance sheets. This is a pretty good place to be at as we head into supposedly troubling times ahead.
ETFs versus individual stocks
My portfolio is largely composed of individual stocks, but since I am investing across both taxable and tax-advantaged accounts such as HSA, Roth IRA etc. I am choosing to stick with ETFs for the tax-advantaged accounts, to make my life easier. I am currently invested in two ETFs that are paying me income:
- SCHD – 4.37%
- JEPI – 0.98%
I did a deep-dive Twitter thread on JEPI which I will link here for your benefit.
Per my research, JEPI is ideally suited for a market that might trade sideways while its performance might be mediocre if the market is trading upwards. I want to be really careful with this investment because it is very easy to get blinded by the high distribution yield and just throw a lot of money towards this fund.
I am happy with my current allocation for each of these funds. They are performing as advertised and so far have not disappointed me.
My top 5 losers
In this section, I want to look at top 5 positions that have lost the most amount of total value thus far.
- 3M (ticker: MMM)
- Verizon (ticker: VZ)
- Whirlpool (ticker: WHR)
- T. Rowe Price Group (ticker: TROW)
- Target (ticker: TGT)
There is no surprise that 3M is on this list. While I hope that this iconic company is able to weather the two separate lawsuits that it is fighting against, I have to admit that this is one of the top stocks that is on the “chopping block” right now. If you are interested, I encourage you to listen to this Dividend Talk podcast episode on the litigation that 3M is involved with and their thoughts on this subject.
Verizon is an interesting case study. I did a separate deep-dive twitter thread on this business as well (shared below).
Verizon is performing the role of a bond-proxy in my portfolio. I initiated this position during the initial days of my portfolio and have never sold out it. But after studying the workings of the telecommunication industry, I have to admit that I fail to see how businesses like Verizon and AT&T will be profitable anytime soon. The management at these companies probably also realize this and have tried to add other growth catalysts into their business by acquiring businesses such as media houses. But none of these acquisitions have quite worked out as planned.
And since I already hold several bond-like positions in my portfolio, such as utilities, I might consider selling out of the telecommunication sector and staying out of it for good.
Then we come to the next two losers, Whirlpool and Target. Whirlpool is an interesting beast. On the one hand, it is a well-known powerhouse brand across the world. Every household needs access to washers/dryers for laundry, dishwashers, microwaves, refrigerators and other kitchen appliances. Whirlpool, in combination with other brands under its umbrella such as Maytag and Kitchenaid, provides attractive appliance options to middle-class families at a lower price point. I am also happy with the acquisition of the InSinkErator disposal business, I think this is a great addition to Whirlpool’s portfolio. Whether consumer discretionary spending will pick up or not is anyone’s guess, but I am prepared to hold onto this position for the long-term.
Target has been going through some tough times in the recent weeks. It got dragged into a controversy over supporting merchandise for pride month and appearing to be pro-LGBTQ. Another issue that was highlighted in the last earnings call has to do with the rise of thefts from retail stores around the country, commonly referred to as “shrink”: On the last earnings call, Brian Cornell, CEO of Target, said the following:
Beyond safety concerns, worsening shrink rates are putting significant pressure on our financial results. More specifically, based on the results we’ve seen so far this year, we expect that shrink will reduce our profitability by more than $0.5 billion compared with last year. And while we’re doing all we can to address the problem, it’s an industry and community issue that can’t be solved by a single retailer. That’s why we’re actively collaborating with legislators, law enforcement, and retail industry partners to advocate for public policy solutions to combat organized retail crime.
I did check and Mr. Cornell is not wrong. The same sentiment was echoed by the Walmart execs in their earnings call. I am confident that these issues are short-term in nature and Target should be able to return back to its default operating margin of 7%+ within the next few years.
My top 5 winners
In this section, I want to look at top 5 positions that have gained the most amount of total value thus far.
- Microsoft (ticker: MSFT)
- Lockheed Martin (ticker: LMT)
- Visa (ticker: V)
- Apple (ticker: AAPL)
- Aflac (ticker: AFL)
Not surprisingly, we have the two major big tech giants in AAPL and MSFT in this list. MSFT has been a big beneficiary of the AI hype-train that is circling the tech industry at this point. But even after this AI hype fizzles out, given the strategic investments that MSFT has made over the past decade with technologies such as LinkedIn, Github etc. I am very confident in the long-term growth prospects of this business. AAPL has been disappointing as far as dividend income and it seems like management has instead chosen to return value to shareholders in the form of buybacks. But as a business, I have absolutely no complaints! I was just blown away with the capabilities of their VisionPro headset. And I can think of several innovative ways through which they can use this product line to extend their wall ecosystem and further lock-in more customers.
I am happy that Visa is on this list. This is a phenomenal business and one that deserves its own deep-dive post. So I will reserve my thoughts on Visa for now.
The other two entries on this list are businesses that do not get a lot of coverage in mainstream media, but are phenomenal in their own right. AFL, the quacking duck, is about as boring as a business that one can imagine. But it is wonderfully run by someone who I consider is a very tactful and under-appreciated CEO, Mr. Daniel Amos.
LMT gets a lot of flak on social media as a business that enables countries to go to war, causes a lot of damage to humankind and is therefore classified under the category of “sin stocks”. While I understand this reasoning, it is flawed for several reasons. Firstly, every country needs to have a strong army for its own defense and to preserve its sovereignty. While we can always hope for peace and harmonious co-existence between countries, we cannot ignore the reality that power respects power. We do not need to look too far for examples of this situation. Take the current standoff between Ukraine and Russia. So from that standpoint, businesses like LMT do have a market to serve. Secondly, LMT is also involved in aerospace projects which have nothing to do with war. I highly recommend the deep-dive on Lockheed Martin by the folks on the Acquired podcast. There is so much interesting history with LMT that I was not aware of that can help put this company and this industry in perspective.
Dividend Income
My one and only metric for gauging the performance of my portfolio is to track the amount of dividend income it is generating. To this end, my sole focus is to guarantee that this dividend income is across these businesses is safe and adequately covered. This leads me to frequently evaluate the businesses through their revenue growth, their cash flow generation, the strength of their balance sheet and the quality of the management.
Surprisingly, this aspect of evaluating performance is very controversial, with several dividend irrelevance theorists asking why dividend growth investors never compare their portfolio against a broad market index like the SP500. I have written about this aspect previously on my blog, but it is worth highlighting again. Firstly, comparing my portfolio against the SP500 is not an apples-to-apples comparison. My goal is to rely on a portfolio that generates passive income through dividends. If I were to invest in the something like SPY for this purpose, my portfolio yield would be far more lower than what it is today. Secondly, I do not like the sector weightings for SP500. SP500 is more favorably weighed towards Tech (>20%), while Consumer Staples is lot smaller (~10%). This is very different from my desired risk profile and investment appetite.
Thus far, my portfolio has generated a total of $1783.24 in passive income. A majority (~93%) has been through dividends. This is not factoring in income for the month of June. June is supposed to be one of my big months. In spite of that, it does seem like I might be falling just shy of my goal to hit the $6000-mark for annual dividend income.
Over the last three years, the year over year progression for the portfolio is impressive. The portfolio is yielding at around 3.03% with the weighted-average 3yr dividend growth CAGR at around 9.69%. This is even after some disappointing dividend increases from TROW, MMM, AAPL and more recently TGT. I am happy with the spot that I am at with the portfolio, inline with the Chowder Rule.
Goals for the blog
I have already spoken about the possibility of missing on one of my goals to do with the PADI. Let us talk about some of the other goals.
I have so far reviewed two really high-quality books this year. I am confident that I will be able to finish reviewing two more books to complete my goal of reviewing 4 books in this year.
I also wanted to complete 5 deep-dive posts for my positions. For this specific goal, I seem to get better discussion and traction on my deep-dive threads on Twitter than on this blog. If you are interested, I will include a link to my collection of Twitter threads for companies that I have covered so far.
My last goal was to have 2 guests on this blog. I was a little conflicted between having guests write posts, doing written interviews or starting a podcast series where I can interact with these guests in an audio format. I am leaning towards the final option, but the paucity of time is a real issue. We shall see.
Wrapping up
If you are with me and have been reading thus far, thank you very much for your patience! This has been a long post but one where I discuss my thoughts around the portfolio, the blog itself, how I need to set up the portfolio w.r.t times ahead and also go over the portfolio performance briefly.
I encourage you to do the same with your portfolios, your finances and your other important matters periodically to safeguard yourselves from any future surprises.
Cheers!